The rich get richer…

…and the poor have their playoff chances drift away.  Not quite biblical, but it seems to be the truth for the Fall 2010 NBL season.

The playoff picture – or at least the likelihood of who will make it – has taken shape earlier this season than any of the previous five in the NBL.  It looks like it will take at least a 7-6 record to make it to the post-season.  Given that:

• one team has already clinched a slot (License to Roll at 9-1 – and with an incredible 18.1 ppg – are rolling as well as any team ever has in the NBL);
• three are a virtual lock (Segals, Deboccery, and Bocce Bartokomous need to win only one game each over their final five regular season games to assure a winning record); and
• three others comfortably control their own destiny (Team Schweddy can go 3-4 for the rest of the season , What Up, Biocce? needs to win one of their three remaining games, and Sons of a Bocce need only to win half of their last six games for each to finish above .500 for the season).

  So that looks like the “reserved” sign for seven of the eight seats at the play-off banquet are already being printed…which means the remaining nine teams are fighting for the final seat at the table.

Here’s how things look for the rest of the league:

• In good shape: Ball Bustahs are flashing their consistently inconsistent regular season style; if they can win three of their last five games, they stand a decent chance of making the playoffs for the fifth time.
• Might need some help: Tonsil Bocce has to win their last two game, but they’ve only recorded back-to-back victories once this year; the Meatballs have a little more room for error as they can still lose one of their final four games and still finish at 7-6…and they have an all-important head-tp-head victory over Ball Bustahs, too.  Ironically, Bocce Said She Was 18 might have one of the better chances to finish at 7-6, even though they are in last place; they would also need to finish at a .750 clip over their last 8 games…but this would allow them to still lose two and finish with a winning season.  But they’ll need to recapture last season’s form and score much better than their current 10.2 ppg.
• No margin for error: Cojones Loco will definitely need to roll some crazy balls to make it to playoffs, given that they need to win all of their final four games to make it to 7-6 for the regular season; the news for Swim, Bike, Bocce, the Bevo Bowlers, and Revenge of WAH is even more grim, given that each will need to win their final five games to finish over .500 for the regular season.  With each having a negative point differential (three of them at -26 or worse), perhaps the subhead for this section should read, “no friggin’ way.”
• Wait until next year: After finishing as runners-up in last season’s championship, Mumbling Skulls has endured a mass off-season defection, their capo’s lack of availability due to a shift change at work, and the need to field a team of mostly bocce first-timers.  And one of their mainstays has been playing on a leg with two broken bones!  No wonder one of their losses this past week took only 13 minutes.  Even with all of this, they were able to record their second win of the season, moving them back out of last place.  But with seven losses already, they might be fielding a number of their farm team players in preparation for the Spring 2011 season.

 The standings after Week 5 are:

		Wins	Losses	Pct.	PF	PA	Diff
1	License to Roll	9	1	0.900	181	104	77
2	Segals	6	2	0.750	129	99	30
3	Deboccery	6	2	0.750	129	102	27
4	Bocce Bartokomous	6	2	0.750	114	95	19
5	Team Schweddy	4	2	0.667	86	64	22
6	What Up, Biocce?	6	4	0.600	166	126	40
7	Sons of Bocce	4	3	0.571	90	87	3
8	Ball Bustahs	4	4	0.500	116	108	8
9	Tonsil Bocce	5	6	0.455	139	131	8
10	Meatballs	4	5	0.444	84	118	-34
11	Cojones Loco	3	6	0.333	106	139	-33
12	Swim, Bike, Bocce	2	6	0.250	105	113	-8
13	Bevo Bowlers	2	6	0.250	105	131	-26
14	Revenge of WAH	2	6	0.250	83	117	-34
15	Mumbling Skulls	2	7	0.222	75	151	-76
16	Bocce Said She Was 18	1	4	0.200	51	74	-23